GGII: Research Report on China's lithium battery industry in 2021
The proportion of new energy vehicle power battery shipment continued to increase. In 2020, China's vehicle power battery shipment will be 80gwh, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7%, accounting for 56% of China's lithium battery market, far exceeding other application terminals. From 2017 to 2020, the proportion of power battery in the domestic market increased from 57.5% to 1.8%, while the proportion of power battery in the domestic market increased from 3.5% to 1.8% .
Cylindrical batteries accounted for 9.7%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points over the previous year. The increase in the proportion of cylindrical power battery shipment was mainly due to the substantial increase in the sales of domestic Tesla Model 3 and other models, which led to the increase in the domestic power battery shipment of LG and Panasonic. It is expected that in the next few years, driven by the Tesla 4680 cylinder effect, the proportion of cylinder in the field of power battery is expected to continue to increase.
In 2020, the lithium battery for lithium electric two wheel vehicles (including shared bicycle and shared power exchange cabinet) will be shipped 9.7gwh, with a year-on-year growth of 78%, mainly due to the sharp increase in market demand for lithium light vehicles. The main reasons for the sharp increase of lithium light vehicle market are as follows: 1) the epidemic situation leads to changes in travel mode, the demand for electric light vehicles is increasing, especially for electric two wheeled vehicles; 2) the implementation of 3C standard in China, the proportion of lithium battery application of new two wheel vehicles is increased, and the replacement of lead acid battery is accelerated; 3) due to the impact of the epidemic situation, coupled with the high subsidy of European countries for electric two wheel vehicles In 2020, the demand of foreign market doubled, which led to the increase of domestic two wheel vehicles and upstream lithium battery shipments; 4) in addition, the domestic market volume of shared bicycles increased by 310% year-on-year in 2020, and the amount of the sharing bicycle change cabinet increased by 150% year-on-year, driving the demand of upstream lithium battery.
In the next few years, with the increase of domestic share market, the standardization and standardization of the industry will be gradually improved, and the lithium battery will replace lead-acid to accelerate. GGII predicts that the shipment of lithium battery for China's lithium light vehicle will reach 35gwh by 2025.
In 2020, domestic lithium batteries for electric tools will be shipped 5.6gwh, with a year-on-year growth of 124%. The main reasons for the substantial growth of lithium battery market for power tools are as follows: 1) the international power tool terminal enterprises led by TTI gradually turn the industrial chain to China, promoting the domestic power tool lithium battery industry to speed up the transformation and layout of the industry; 2) the epidemic has led to the increase in the demand for home DIY tools and cordless power tools, driving the increase in the demand for upstream lithium batteries; 3) there are many power tools The production line is gradually switched to wireless, and the power requirements of wireless power tools are relatively high, which makes the number of batteries used by a single power tool increase, driving the increase of lithium battery shipment; 4) foreign lithium battery enterprises represented by LG, SDI and Panasonic will gradually shrink their production line to produce power batteries in 2020, reducing the supply of cylindrical batteries for power tools, which will reduce the production cost Less space is quickly occupied by domestic cylindrical battery enterprises.
GGII predicts that China's lithium battery market for electric tools will maintain a compound annual growth rate of 19% in the next five years as domestic cylindrical lithium battery enterprises accelerate the substitution of LG, SDI and Panasonic.